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Economic Outlook and Summary June started calmly and ended in a panic. US inflation surged to 8.6%, well above the 8.3% forecast, and stocks plunged. The month ended with the S&P 500 index having its worst first half since 1970. FX markets were volatile, with traders reacting to inflation data, central bank monetary policy, equity […]
Economic Outlook and Summary May was a choppy month for markets. Ultimately, the fear that US interest rates would rise aggressively, which fueled broad US dollar gains in the first week, gave way to hopes that the Fed would successfully engineer an economic “soft-landing. The US dollar ended the month with losses against the G-10 […]
Economic Outlook and Summary April ended with the US dollar on solid footing. The greenback climbed steadily during the month, underpinned by a rash of Fed policymakers discussing the need for higher interest rates to fend off rising inflation, which jumped to 8.5% y/y in March. The greenback received an additional boost when St Louis […]
Economic Outlook and Summary War and interest rates were the focus in March, and that won’t change in April. The EU, USA, and the rest of the G-10 governments have levied a slew of sanctions on Russian businesses, politicians, and oligarchs. The sanctions may have inconvenienced Russia, but they haven’t done anything to halt the […]
Economic Outlook and Summary The outlook for global interest rates and the equity market reaction to tighter policy will drive US dollar direction. Two of the “Big Three” central banks (Bank of England, Federal Reserve) kicked off 2022 with a rate hike or in the case of the Fed, the promise of a series of […]
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